Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
Week 13 of the 2023 NFL schedule features a slew of intriguing matchups, including a Sunday afternoon showdown between the Miami Dolphins (8-3) and Washington Commanders (4-8) at FedEx Field.
The Dolphins are winners of back-to-back outings, most recently blowing out the New York Jets 34-13 in the NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game. Miami has now won three of its last four games, closing within half a game of the Baltimore Ravens for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Commanders, on the other hand, hope to avoid a third straight loss after falling 45-10 to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. While the postseason might seem like a pipe dream, Washington isn’t out of the hunt just yet, sitting two wins back of the final NFC seed.
DraftKings’ NFL futures indicate that the Dolphins are in a good spot to end their 50-year title drought, giving them +800 odds to win Super Bowl LVIII (fourth-best). The Commanders’ odds aren’t nearly as favorable, clocking in at +50000.
Given how this campaign has unfolded, it isn’t shocking to see Miami heavily favored on the moneyline despite being the away team. Even though the Dolphins are only 3-3 on the road, those losses came against the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles — three Super Bowl-quality teams.
This season has shown that having home-field advantage doesn’t mean anything for Washington. The Commanders have tasted defeat in four of their five games at FedExField thus far, getting outscored by an average of five points per game.
This game is just a bad mix for Washington, which allows the most points per game (29.2) in 2023. After all, Miami’s lethal offense averages 30.8 PPG (second-best) and an NFL-leading 430.5 total yards per game, 25 more yards than the next-closest team.
The Commanders also allow the second-most yards per completion, which is bad news given how dangerous the Dolphins’ aerial assault can be.
Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is averaging a career-high 288.8 passing yards per contest, helping wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combine for 140 receptions, 2,015 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns.
It’s just hard imagining a world where Washington’s defense magically becomes good enough to slow down Tua and co. The Dolphins will likely exploit all of the Commanders’ defensive holes en route to another easy win.
Point Spread
Miami is the biggest road favorite of the week with the spread sitting at 9.5 points in its favor. In other words, the Dolphins must win by at least a touchdown and field goal to cover.
Winning by double digits is tough for most teams, but it’s something Miami has already accomplished five times this season. Additionally, not only are the Dolphins 7-4 against the spread (ATS) this season, but they’re also 5-1 ATS in their six previous Week 13 tilts.
Washington struggles against the spread at FedExField, going 0-4-1 ATS through five home games. Considering how the Commanders lost three of those games by margins of 12, 20 and 34 points, it isn’t hard to see why Miami is the heavy spread favorite.
After losing to the Cowboys by 35 points just last week, Washington will be hard-pressed to keep things close. Look for the Dolphins to win this matchup by a wide margin.
The Over/Under for this showdown sits at 49.5 points, the highest among the projected Week 13 totals. This is a game between one of the NFL’s best offenses and worst defenses.
But despite having enough talent to score at will, Miami has only seen the Over hit six times in 11 outings, which includes just three times in six road games. The Over is 2-3 in the Dolphins’ five most recent outings as well.
On the other side, the Over is 7-5 in Commanders games this season, including 4-1 in the last five games. FedExField has also seen its fair share of scoring with an average total of 51 points per game. Each of Washington’s last three home games went over 49.5 points.
Miami has scored 30+ points six times this season, proving it can do most of the heavy lifting if needed. The Commanders can also score a bit, averaging 20.5 PPG (20th-best) on offense.
Even if the forecast calls for rain on Sunday, it’s only expected to be light showers and wind. Assuming that nothing changes before then, weather likely won’t prevent these teams from finding the end zone.
Back the Over in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Player Prop
With how generous Washington’s secondary is to pass-catchers, taking Tyreek Hill to finish with over 97.5 receiving yards (-125) is one of the best player props this weekend.
Hill has been the NFL’s best wide receiver this season, leading all players in receiving yards (1,324) and receiving yards per game (120.4). The Dolphins superstar has finished with at least 98 receiving yards seven times through 11 games, including last week’s 102-yard performance.
Fortunately for Hill, the Commanders give up the most receiving yards to wideouts. They’ve also allowed a quartet of WRs to finish with at least 99 receiving yards in their last four home games.
Unless Tagovailoa suddenly forgets Hill exists, chances are the seven-time Pro Bowler will come through on this prop.
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