The Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen need to change. But will they be able to?

The Buffalo Bills are the most fascinating story of the NFL offseason. Ever since Josh Allen ascended to the tier level of NFL quarterbacks in 2020, the team has headed into the season with Super Bowl expectations … and then fallen bitterly short.

Windows in the NFL are never as long as teams hope. Injuries mount up. The cap bites. A botched free agent signing or a coaching snafu can be the difference between winning it all and exiting the playoffs early. Since 2021, the Bills have experienced it all, from the painful to the bizarre:

• The 13-second defeat in the 2021 season playoffs to the Chiefs

• Sean McDermott referencing al-Qaida as inspiration in a motivational speech

• Passing up on offensive additions in the draft in favor of defensive talent

• Signing Von Miller to a huge free-agent contract

• Miller being made a healthy scratch after allegations of domestic abuse

• Damar Hamlin collapsing on the field against the Bengals

• Being out-muscled at home by the Bengals in the 2022 season playoffs

• Leslie Frazier’s awkward departure as defensive coordinator

• Firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey midseason in 2023

• Stefon Diggs vanishing during training camp

• Losing to the undermanned Chiefs at home in last season’s playoffs

This offseason has brought a mini-reboot. Gone are stalwarts of the team’s recent success. Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse, Tyrel Dodson and Leonard Floyd were all allowed to walk in free agency. On Monday, they traded away Stefon Diggs to the Texans for a future second-round pick. And the trade is an oddity: a win-win. The Bills were able to unload an ageing player on an expensive contract and recoup a high pick. The Texans add a talented veteran to a young core.

By unloading veterans and choosing not to replace them in free agency, the Bills are betting on the idea that Allen is the only player who truly matters to keep their title hopes on track. “You have to have a franchise quarterback to be a consistent contender … I don’t think our window is closing,” GM Brandon Beane told ESPN last week. “There’s changes, salary changes, draft changes. All the things as you evolve your roster. It all still builds around the quarterback.”

Through that prism, moving Diggs makes sense. Diggs regressed last season. There had been tensions simmering between the receiver, organization and Allen dating back to last year’s training camp. His performance dipped drastically over the second half of last season, in part due to the Bills switching out coordinators. In the playoffs, he’s become a non-factor. Diggs has not caught a touchdown pass in his last seven playoff games and has failed to top 60 yards in his six postseason appearances, averaging just six yards a target.

In Houston, Diggs will lineup on an offense with three top-30 receivers and CJ Stroud, one of the league’s emerging stars, at quarterback. With their offseason moves, the Texans have vaulted into the Bengals and Ravens class of contenders.

Things are murkier in Buffalo. The Bills have signed or acquired just three new starters so far this offseason and only one on offense. The Ravens have added six new projected starters. The Bengals have added five. The Dolphins, seven. The Texans, eight.

Buffalo sacrificed future flexibility to go all-in in 2022 after the ‘13 seconds’ debacle in Kansas City. When that failed, they delayed an inevitable teardown to take one more run at a title. And it ended the same way things always do for the Bills these days, with a disappointing outing in the playoffs. Now, they’re resetting, letting costly veterans go, and hoping an injection of youth through the draft can be the difference-maker in the postseason.

It’s easy to rationalize Buffalo’s decisions. They’re building a new team, amassing young talent around a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback who is still just 27. But by gambling on youth and sitting out the veteran market, the Bills are in danger of letting this season slip by. Hoping you can retool the roster for another five-year surge would require believing that Allen can remaster his game or stay healthy. And those are the nagging question at the heart of the Bills organization: who do they want Allen to be? And for how long can he do it?